High-Performance Forecasting of Spring Flood in Mountain River Basins with Complex Landscape Structure

نویسندگان

چکیده

We propose the methodology of building process-driven models for medium-term forecasting spring floods (including catastrophic ones) in mountainous areas, hydrological analysis which is usually much more complicated contrast to plains. Our based on system analytical modeling complex processes 34 river basins Altai-Sayan mountain country. Consideration 13 types landscapes as autonomous subsystems influencing rivers’ runoff (1951–2020) allowed us develop universal predictive model most dangerous April monthly (with ice motion), applicable any basin. The input factors are average air temperature and precipitation current autumn–winter period, well data basin landscape structure relief calculated by GIS tools. established dependences runoffs meteorological quite formed under influence solar radiation physical–hydrological patterns melting snow cover, moistening, freezing, thawing soils. shows greatest sensitivity composition (49% common flood variance), then autumn (9%), winter (3%), finally, (0.7%). When it applied individual basins, forecast quality very good, with Nesh–Sutcliffe coefficient NSE = 0.77. In terms accuracy designed demonstrates high-class performance.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Water

سال: 2023

ISSN: ['2073-4441']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/w15061080